Climate Change
There is no longer any doubt that man made climate change is real and getting worse. We won't do enough about it until the shit gets much worse.
Randall Munroe has an excellent demonstration (here).
First a comment on the deniers. It's true I don't get denial. Measuring the amount of carbon in the air isn't all that difficult. Similarly, measuring the level of the ocean is relatively straight forward. There are web sites (see this, this, and this) that will show you the positions of glaciers going back decades. I'll save you the trip. The pictures don't look good. Indeed, one wit commented that it did seem odd that 97% of climate scientists would form a conspiracy entirely in order to be vilified. Incidentally, the other three percent appear to be guilty of bad science. Perhaps it is interesting that lots of folks don't use material evidence in their day to day lives and so don't understand how it can affect them.
The deniers come in several stripes. One group is sure that God wouldn't do this to us. The thing that strikes me is these folks also appear to have forgotten this has happened before (see Genesis ch 6). The other major group (and they are not necessarily distinct) like the way the money currently flows, thank you very much. Our country will not get much better until political campaigns are entirely publically funded.
One of the reasons this cannot be fixed has to do with the nature of fossil energy. One clear factor is that it is cheap. We fail to consider this at our peril. Another aspect has to do with things like energy density and handling characteristics. Fossil energy contains a lot of directly usable energy. And it is relatively easy to manufacture, transport, and store. There just aren't any other materials that have these characteristics. Hydrogen, for instance, is difficult to compress sufficiently in order to make it practicable. And it tends to explode. On top of this you typically have to make it from water and this takes energy.
I know a lot of folks think we'll solve this with electricity and batteries. Electricity is no savior if the energy used to make comes from fossil energy, as is very commonly done today. Batteries have their own problems. The best performing are made with rare earths. Any serious success with this will eventually cause severe economic, and quite possibly, political problems. By which I mean war.
But, you say, what about wind and solar? These are real advantages, but they are not perfect solutions. The wind does not always blow and the sun does not always shine. So we need batteries. And batteries have problems.
The real problems with climate change are two fold. It is too big. And it cannot be seen. Strange thing to say, but both are true. Our use of fossil fuels underpins all of modern society and economics. It's everywhere. All aspects of all the humans on this planet have a direct relationship to these fuels. So 'big' hardly describes the issue. So this is big, and we have to change something like half of it. Straight up, how do you change change half of something that big? I have no idea. Do you? Any reasonable choice would require the governments of most of the worlds countries to agree. This has never happened before. Why would it happen now?
One of the things that gets me is that the problem is mostly invisible. I get that some folks see it. But this is a tiny minority of the population. Carbon dioxide is colorless and odorless. It takes unusual tools to see it at all. Most folks have no way of seeing how much is there, much less having any sense of whether or not that amount is good or bad. And if there is more, how does that affect my life? If the amount changes by five percent, would I know?
We are told that the temperature is changing. I sure do hear folks telling me that. But do I feel it? No, not really. We're talking about a change of a couple three degrees. The weather around here changes by more than that every day. How would I see any difference?
These changes just don't rank in the top ten of most people's lives. Maybe top twenty. The issue might as well not exist. What are you going to do that will be a direct slap in the face for these folks? Because that is what it will take.
I do get a little annoyed with folks that go on about saving the planet. The planet is fine. It has survived much worse than this. There have been at lease five severe climate events. Each were likely worse than what we are currently facing. All five resulted in mass extinction. The planet, and life on it, survived each time (I do not deny that things were pretty dicey). What we are really talking about is, directly, our ability to use the planet in the manner we've become accustomed to. As to that, we are clearly fucking up. We are degrading biodiversity. But most folks don't care about that. I don't think we should pretend this will change in the future.
There are folks who think one of the reasons for the travesty in Syria is directly related to climate change. The number of folks that migrated as a result caused all the countries in Europe to enact anti-immigrant laws. This despite all of them having severe demographic problems. Native ladies aren't having enough babies. In the United States the average is 1.73. Replacement is 2.1. When you don't replace the population quite bad things happen. GDP declines. The number of people supporting an ageing population declines. Where does the money to support these folks come from? The real kicker is pretty scary. What happens if major population centers have major droughts? What happens if more than the millions of Syrians decide to move? What happens if a billion people decide to move? War looks like a safe bet.
What happens if mosquitos don't die off in the winter?
The one aspect of all of this that I don't fucking get is the fear of nuclear energy. Close to zero carbon. Much more friendly for managing the hour to hour aspects of the electricity grid. It's abundant and cheap. But we won't do it. In fact we are shutting down plants. Why? Fear? Nuclear is safer than coal. And coal mining goes on all over the planet. The fear stems from a tiny number of incidents, all of which are largely human error. Human error can be addressed with engineering. The real sin here is that we don't pursue molten salt reactors. Much safer. When the power fails the reaction stops. Are any of the rich western countries doing anything with molten salt? No. Stupid.
In all of this, my view of humanity has grown darker. I'm frequently reminded of a scene from near the end of one of my favorite moves the Matrix. Agent Smith is interrogating Morpheus. I quote:
I'd like to share a revelation during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species. I realized that you're not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply and multiply until every natural resource is consumed. The only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet. You are a plague, and we are the cure.
End quote.
I wonder if Agent Smith is correct.
There is one point that might be positive. The loss of our ability to live on this planet is self correcting.
Randall Munroe has an excellent demonstration (here).
First a comment on the deniers. It's true I don't get denial. Measuring the amount of carbon in the air isn't all that difficult. Similarly, measuring the level of the ocean is relatively straight forward. There are web sites (see this, this, and this) that will show you the positions of glaciers going back decades. I'll save you the trip. The pictures don't look good. Indeed, one wit commented that it did seem odd that 97% of climate scientists would form a conspiracy entirely in order to be vilified. Incidentally, the other three percent appear to be guilty of bad science. Perhaps it is interesting that lots of folks don't use material evidence in their day to day lives and so don't understand how it can affect them.
The deniers come in several stripes. One group is sure that God wouldn't do this to us. The thing that strikes me is these folks also appear to have forgotten this has happened before (see Genesis ch 6). The other major group (and they are not necessarily distinct) like the way the money currently flows, thank you very much. Our country will not get much better until political campaigns are entirely publically funded.
One of the reasons this cannot be fixed has to do with the nature of fossil energy. One clear factor is that it is cheap. We fail to consider this at our peril. Another aspect has to do with things like energy density and handling characteristics. Fossil energy contains a lot of directly usable energy. And it is relatively easy to manufacture, transport, and store. There just aren't any other materials that have these characteristics. Hydrogen, for instance, is difficult to compress sufficiently in order to make it practicable. And it tends to explode. On top of this you typically have to make it from water and this takes energy.
I know a lot of folks think we'll solve this with electricity and batteries. Electricity is no savior if the energy used to make comes from fossil energy, as is very commonly done today. Batteries have their own problems. The best performing are made with rare earths. Any serious success with this will eventually cause severe economic, and quite possibly, political problems. By which I mean war.
But, you say, what about wind and solar? These are real advantages, but they are not perfect solutions. The wind does not always blow and the sun does not always shine. So we need batteries. And batteries have problems.
The real problems with climate change are two fold. It is too big. And it cannot be seen. Strange thing to say, but both are true. Our use of fossil fuels underpins all of modern society and economics. It's everywhere. All aspects of all the humans on this planet have a direct relationship to these fuels. So 'big' hardly describes the issue. So this is big, and we have to change something like half of it. Straight up, how do you change change half of something that big? I have no idea. Do you? Any reasonable choice would require the governments of most of the worlds countries to agree. This has never happened before. Why would it happen now?
One of the things that gets me is that the problem is mostly invisible. I get that some folks see it. But this is a tiny minority of the population. Carbon dioxide is colorless and odorless. It takes unusual tools to see it at all. Most folks have no way of seeing how much is there, much less having any sense of whether or not that amount is good or bad. And if there is more, how does that affect my life? If the amount changes by five percent, would I know?
We are told that the temperature is changing. I sure do hear folks telling me that. But do I feel it? No, not really. We're talking about a change of a couple three degrees. The weather around here changes by more than that every day. How would I see any difference?
These changes just don't rank in the top ten of most people's lives. Maybe top twenty. The issue might as well not exist. What are you going to do that will be a direct slap in the face for these folks? Because that is what it will take.
I do get a little annoyed with folks that go on about saving the planet. The planet is fine. It has survived much worse than this. There have been at lease five severe climate events. Each were likely worse than what we are currently facing. All five resulted in mass extinction. The planet, and life on it, survived each time (I do not deny that things were pretty dicey). What we are really talking about is, directly, our ability to use the planet in the manner we've become accustomed to. As to that, we are clearly fucking up. We are degrading biodiversity. But most folks don't care about that. I don't think we should pretend this will change in the future.
There are folks who think one of the reasons for the travesty in Syria is directly related to climate change. The number of folks that migrated as a result caused all the countries in Europe to enact anti-immigrant laws. This despite all of them having severe demographic problems. Native ladies aren't having enough babies. In the United States the average is 1.73. Replacement is 2.1. When you don't replace the population quite bad things happen. GDP declines. The number of people supporting an ageing population declines. Where does the money to support these folks come from? The real kicker is pretty scary. What happens if major population centers have major droughts? What happens if more than the millions of Syrians decide to move? What happens if a billion people decide to move? War looks like a safe bet.
What happens if mosquitos don't die off in the winter?
The one aspect of all of this that I don't fucking get is the fear of nuclear energy. Close to zero carbon. Much more friendly for managing the hour to hour aspects of the electricity grid. It's abundant and cheap. But we won't do it. In fact we are shutting down plants. Why? Fear? Nuclear is safer than coal. And coal mining goes on all over the planet. The fear stems from a tiny number of incidents, all of which are largely human error. Human error can be addressed with engineering. The real sin here is that we don't pursue molten salt reactors. Much safer. When the power fails the reaction stops. Are any of the rich western countries doing anything with molten salt? No. Stupid.
In all of this, my view of humanity has grown darker. I'm frequently reminded of a scene from near the end of one of my favorite moves the Matrix. Agent Smith is interrogating Morpheus. I quote:
I'd like to share a revelation during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species. I realized that you're not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply and multiply until every natural resource is consumed. The only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet. You are a plague, and we are the cure.
End quote.
I wonder if Agent Smith is correct.
There is one point that might be positive. The loss of our ability to live on this planet is self correcting.
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