Deaths of Despair
For about a year I've been thinking about a series of trends. I find
these alarming. And, though the causes are very complex, I think they
are all related. Let me show you what I've been thinking about. I've
tried to add links below to articles that give more information.
Economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton discovered in 2015 (The Forces Driving Middle-Aged White People's 'Deaths Of Despair' and their recent paper Mortality and Morbidity in the 21st Century) that non-hispanic whites between 45 and 55 have a dropping life expectancy. Life expectancy had been rising for a long time. A lot of what they are dying of isn't increased disease, it's drug overdose, alcoholism and suicide.
Opioid use (Opioid Epidemic) and overdose is increasing. And it's increasing at an alarming rate. Certainly some of this can be attributed to the connection between the over prescription of opioids in the nineties, their recent hard restriction (and subsequent cost increase on the black market), with the cheapness of heroin and the synthetic opioids. But I'm not alone in believing that a lot of drug use, and opioids specifically, at least start as a way to mask pain (the typical operation of addiction is another matter).
Disability claims are on a dramatic rise (The Boom In Disability Benefits). So some of this is due to an aging workforce in very physical jobs. But some of this is thought to be the result of the decline in real wages in many parts of the country.
The labor force participation rate for men has been on a downward trajectory for nearly 60 years (The Declining Labor Force Participation Rate: Causes, Consequences, and the Path Forward). Certainly some of this is due to an aging workforce. I wonder how much of this is due to in-elasticity (folks being unable or unwilling to retrain in a new field) in the workforce and how much is due to some despondency in the workforce.
Since sometime in the late seventies the US economy has been restructuring. A lot of manufacturing jobs have been lost to globalization (for example almost no clothing is made in the US) and to automation (How technology is changing manufacturing). Robots don't take sick days. Manufacturing in this country is actually fairly robust (is it near all time highs? must check). It is manufacturing jobs that are lost.
There are only about 50,000 coal miners in the country (Is President Trump Correct That Coal Mines Are Opening?). And that number is declining. This is not because liberal elites hate coal (well they do, but that's not the cause) or because 'clean coal' is an obvious joke (Coal Pollution Mitigation, How America's clean coal dream unravelled). Instead this is due to the low cost of natural gas associated with the fracking boom (Closing Coal Power Plants, Replacing With Natural Gas, Makes Economic Sense).
The political divide in this country is not between red and blue states. It's between rural and urban counties (Cities Vs. Trump). For me this helps me focus on the issues that rural America faces. That rural Americans vote against their best interests (Does the White Working Class Really Vote Against Its Own Interests?, Why Americans Vote ‘Against Their Interest’: Partisanship, Why people vote against their economic interests) so consistently argues for a deep seated crisis. Certainly these people are being manipulated (religion, racism, class, culture, links), but they wouldn't vote for a man so unqualified as President Trump unless there was some kind of deep seated fear.
Republicans point to immigration (both legal and illegal) as the reason for the decline in blue collar jobs. This isn't true (Does Immigration Cost Jobs?). This is race-baiting and fear-mongering. That it is resonating with a substantial audience is alarming.
Then there comes a politician that sounds like he's on your side. He talks all the time about manufacturing jobs and coal. He says all the right things culturally such as the reason the jobs are gone is because of immigrants. That he got elected says something about the state of our country.
So if you're a 45 year old with no college degree white male living in the countryside things look really bad (It’s a Tough Job Market for the Young Without College Degrees). It feels like your values are under assault (Christian values are under attack). It feels like the liberal college types are sneering at you. There aren't any jobs. The kids are moving away from home (The Graying of Rural America). Things really suck.
All of these sources of fear are causing folks to make some poor decisions. Mr Trump is manifestly unfit for office (any man that brags about committing sexual assault is, disastrous trade policy, et cetera). He was chosen because folks thought he would fight for them. This country is at nasty impasse. We are more divided than I've ever seen. So what do we do about this? I think we should think about how to reduce the fear. What can we do for rural folks that will aid their quality of life. After all, their fears are real. It's just that Trump's solutions are fake.
I'll admit to having a lot of difficulty with talking across the political divide. I cannot imagine talking constructively with someone who supports a politician that brags about committing sexual assault. A politician that is actively racist and misogynist.
But talk we must. There a lot of people in this country that are being left behind. And they are angry. And that anger is fucking up things all over the place.
I think we need some policy proposals to address the dramatic shift in our economy. I think a lot of the problems we're seeing are traceable to the shift in our economy. And I see zero politicians, on either side, addressing this.
I have some proposals:
Economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton discovered in 2015 (The Forces Driving Middle-Aged White People's 'Deaths Of Despair' and their recent paper Mortality and Morbidity in the 21st Century) that non-hispanic whites between 45 and 55 have a dropping life expectancy. Life expectancy had been rising for a long time. A lot of what they are dying of isn't increased disease, it's drug overdose, alcoholism and suicide.
Opioid use (Opioid Epidemic) and overdose is increasing. And it's increasing at an alarming rate. Certainly some of this can be attributed to the connection between the over prescription of opioids in the nineties, their recent hard restriction (and subsequent cost increase on the black market), with the cheapness of heroin and the synthetic opioids. But I'm not alone in believing that a lot of drug use, and opioids specifically, at least start as a way to mask pain (the typical operation of addiction is another matter).
Disability claims are on a dramatic rise (The Boom In Disability Benefits). So some of this is due to an aging workforce in very physical jobs. But some of this is thought to be the result of the decline in real wages in many parts of the country.
The labor force participation rate for men has been on a downward trajectory for nearly 60 years (The Declining Labor Force Participation Rate: Causes, Consequences, and the Path Forward). Certainly some of this is due to an aging workforce. I wonder how much of this is due to in-elasticity (folks being unable or unwilling to retrain in a new field) in the workforce and how much is due to some despondency in the workforce.
Since sometime in the late seventies the US economy has been restructuring. A lot of manufacturing jobs have been lost to globalization (for example almost no clothing is made in the US) and to automation (How technology is changing manufacturing). Robots don't take sick days. Manufacturing in this country is actually fairly robust (is it near all time highs? must check). It is manufacturing jobs that are lost.
There are only about 50,000 coal miners in the country (Is President Trump Correct That Coal Mines Are Opening?). And that number is declining. This is not because liberal elites hate coal (well they do, but that's not the cause) or because 'clean coal' is an obvious joke (Coal Pollution Mitigation, How America's clean coal dream unravelled). Instead this is due to the low cost of natural gas associated with the fracking boom (Closing Coal Power Plants, Replacing With Natural Gas, Makes Economic Sense).
The political divide in this country is not between red and blue states. It's between rural and urban counties (Cities Vs. Trump). For me this helps me focus on the issues that rural America faces. That rural Americans vote against their best interests (Does the White Working Class Really Vote Against Its Own Interests?, Why Americans Vote ‘Against Their Interest’: Partisanship, Why people vote against their economic interests) so consistently argues for a deep seated crisis. Certainly these people are being manipulated (religion, racism, class, culture, links), but they wouldn't vote for a man so unqualified as President Trump unless there was some kind of deep seated fear.
Republicans point to immigration (both legal and illegal) as the reason for the decline in blue collar jobs. This isn't true (Does Immigration Cost Jobs?). This is race-baiting and fear-mongering. That it is resonating with a substantial audience is alarming.
Then there comes a politician that sounds like he's on your side. He talks all the time about manufacturing jobs and coal. He says all the right things culturally such as the reason the jobs are gone is because of immigrants. That he got elected says something about the state of our country.
So if you're a 45 year old with no college degree white male living in the countryside things look really bad (It’s a Tough Job Market for the Young Without College Degrees). It feels like your values are under assault (Christian values are under attack). It feels like the liberal college types are sneering at you. There aren't any jobs. The kids are moving away from home (The Graying of Rural America). Things really suck.
All of these sources of fear are causing folks to make some poor decisions. Mr Trump is manifestly unfit for office (any man that brags about committing sexual assault is, disastrous trade policy, et cetera). He was chosen because folks thought he would fight for them. This country is at nasty impasse. We are more divided than I've ever seen. So what do we do about this? I think we should think about how to reduce the fear. What can we do for rural folks that will aid their quality of life. After all, their fears are real. It's just that Trump's solutions are fake.
I'll admit to having a lot of difficulty with talking across the political divide. I cannot imagine talking constructively with someone who supports a politician that brags about committing sexual assault. A politician that is actively racist and misogynist.
But talk we must. There a lot of people in this country that are being left behind. And they are angry. And that anger is fucking up things all over the place.
I think we need some policy proposals to address the dramatic shift in our economy. I think a lot of the problems we're seeing are traceable to the shift in our economy. And I see zero politicians, on either side, addressing this.
I have some proposals:
- A nationwide database of non-professional jobs.
- Large governmental support for a system of public education, similar to the land grant colleges, geared entirely to non-professional jobs.
- Tuition and moving assistance to allow folks to take advantage of (a) and (b).
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